INTERCAM BANCO OPINIÓN DE LA MESA Divisas 10 de febrero de 2022 Comentario de la mesa

Roberto Galván Caballero
rgalvan@intercam.com.mx
─Instagram: robertip_fx_usdmxn
José Curiel
lcuriele@intercam.com.mx
─Versión inglés
Jonatan Tawil
jtawil@intercam.com.mx
Tipo de Cambio Peso/Dólar
Dólar americano
20.4364
Fix Banxico* 20.5008 Promedio móvil 50 días 20.6563 Promedio móvil 200 días 20.3297 Máximo 30 días 20.9141 Buen día.
Mínimo 30 días 20.2787 En definitiva, lo más relevante de esta jornada se centra en dos eventos. Por una
parte, en unos minutos, se publica el dato de inflación en EE.UU. cuyo nivel seguirá
marcando la pauta del inicio de una Política Monetaria agresiva por parte del
Banco de La Reserva Federal. La inflación en EE.UU. se ubicó sobre 7.0% el mes
anterior y hoy tiene un estimado de 7.3%.
Datos actualizados a las: 7:28 AM
* Correspondiente al día hábil inmediato anterior a
la fecha de esta publicación.
Fuente: Banxico y Bloomberg.
Por otro lado, el segundo evento será a las 13:000 horas cuando Banco de México
difunda la decisión de Política Monetaria. Mucho se ha hablado del tema en
recientes sesiones debido a la incertidumbre que se genera por ser ésta la primera
reunión en la que Victoria Rodriguez Ceja participa, y por si Banxico mantendrá la
Autonomía o seguirá una directriz externa.
Además de lo anterior, tendremos datos de solicitudes de ayuda por desempleo
con estimado de 230k en este mes.
Técnicamente, vemos niveles de 20.40 y 20.35 como soportes inmediatos con
resistencias de corto plazo marcados sobre 20.56 y 20.62 como extensión.
Rangos iniciales estimados: 20.37/20.56.
Saludos.
--------------------------
Good morning.
So Thursday is finally here and markets are awaiting data. The US inflation
accelerates to a 40-year high. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in January,
while the annual rate jumped to 7.5%. If we consider that the US has been
improving its Labor market situation, this leaves the Fed on track to raise interest
rates next month, and in May and June as well.
Jobless Claims came in better than expected, as 223K Americans asked for
unemployment aid on the week ending February 5th, beating the 230K estimated.
Jobless Claims fell for a third consecutive week.
Asia-Pacific stock markets closed mostly higher this Thursday, as investors were
awaiting CPI data in the US.

The Reserve Bank of India announced that they will keep rates unchanged at 4%.
With this, the Nifty 50 rose 0.84%, leading to gains in the region’s markets, followed
by the Japanese Nikkei which jumped 0.42%.
Markets in Europe reacted to CPI data, and pulled back by mid-day, German DAX
is -0.10% while Spaniard IBEX is still on the winning side, 0.23% for now.
Earnings season continued, with results from companies such as Credit Susie,
Unilever, Siemens, Zurich Insurance, AstraZeneca, and Societe Generale, all
before the bell.
Wall Street’s futures tumbled, as well with data, and are expecting a negative
opening. Dow is 150 points down while Nasdaq is -240 points.
Oil is $90.16 USD per barrel, Gold is $1,831.40 USD per ounce, the British Pound
is 1.3530, the Euro is 1.1390 and the Peso is 20.50.
Ahead of the day we still have time to rock and roll, as Banxico will deliver its
monetary policy by 13:00 local time.
Investors have already anticipated a 50 basis point hike, this will be the sixth
consecutive hike by Banxico, as inflation in Mexico is still out of control. Be ready
for volatility by the end of t